Trend Forecasting In The Age Of Chronic Connectivity
Making sense of trend analysis in a flattered cultural landscape overrun by Vibe Chameleons.
cover image: ‘Equipment for Our World’ campaign by The Satisfy x Oakley
In Case of Doubt welcomes Kayla Marci, a Melbourne-based fashion and trend writer and Senior Retail Analyst at EDITED.
Originally, trends in fashion came about in three ways. Firstly, the trickle-down effect, which appeared in the 1950s, is traced back to sociologist Georg Simmel and economist Thorstein Veblen. This theory describes the upper class influencing those of a lower social standing — now immortalized in pop culture by Miranda Priestly's cerulean blue speech in The Devil Wears Prada — depicting how colors, silhouettes, and patterns flow down from luxury houses to the mass market. Secondly, the bubble-up effect is described as an antithesis to the trickle-down theory, in which fashion from lower classes is adopted by the rich, notably with the normalization of denim jeans outside of workwear, and high fashion influenced by youth subcultures. Finally, the trickle-across theory references collective taste across all socioeconomic classes.
These theories remain prevalent in examples of fashion trends today. Think of Chemena Kamali reviving Bohemian aesthetics for Chloé's FW24 collections, which have swiftly been commercialized into more affordable products at Zara and Mango. Then, there is the meta-irony of WILLY CHAVARRIA selling pre-destroyed underwear for $350, and JORDANLUCA's $600 piss-stained jeans. Meanwhile, the “underconsumption” movement on TikTok glamorizes a minimalist lifestyle of buying and consuming less, which is the reality of how working-class consumers live every day.
However, relying on these theories alone isn't enough to accurately forecast trends, particularly with social media and the reactivity of fast fashion thrusting the trend cycle into hyperspeed. Developed by E.M. Rogers in 1962, the Diffusion of Innovation Theory explains the rate at which consumers will adopt a new product or service. In fashion, innovators or enthusiasts first get on board with a new trend, accounting for 2.5% of the population. This is followed by the early adoption phase, at 13.5%, and commercial acceptance, as the early and late majority embrace the trend at 34% each. Finally, the trend reaches the laggards, which comprise 16% of the population, indicating the trend is reaching saturation or becoming obsolete.
With TikTok's role as an incubator for the mass production of micro aesthetics, trends are no longer restricted to this bell-shaped lifespan. Some will emerge and fizzle out just as fast before reaching the masses, being too niche or directional for commercial uptake. Others will experience tweaks to be more palatable before being commercially adapted.
Additionally, the role of social media has democratized trend forecasting, resulting in no longer having a single authoritative voice or an exclusive group controlling the narrative. The viral successes of forecasters like Mandy Lee (@oldloserinbrooklyn), who predicted the return of Indie Sleaze, alongside accounts leveraging social monitoring from public data to run sentiment analysis, popularized by Data, But Make It Fashion and Style Analytics, have led to a ripple effect with countless TikTokers analyzing trends to the point of satire.
In Filterworld: How Algorithms Flattened Culture, Kyle Chayka examines how social media has infiltrated daily life, leading to the rise of a homogenized culture. He explains that algorithms prioritize content that is widely appealing and simple to digest, while more niche, complex, or thought-provoking material is often buried, stifling innovation. This has fueled the uniformity in how we dress as our For You pages get flooded with identical content, often leading to the same information (or Pinterest mood board) regurgitated and reshared by this new guard of trend forecasters without adding original insights.
How can trends be accurately predicted in this era of Vibe Chameleons and monoculture? Fashion moves cyclically, constantly referencing the past. This underscores the crucial role data plays in measuring the consumer impact of a trend, whether its origins are a result of macro factors or pop culture, and applying learnings and modern sensibilities to make it relevant for evolving tastes and lifestyles.
Historically, we have witnessed short hemlines represent a symbol of economic stability and as a form of protest during second-wave feminism. In my research for EDITED, a retail intelligence platform that collates and analyzes data points from online products globally, I discussed with WWD that in the three months following the uprising of #MeToo in 2017, online sell-outs of mini skirts and dresses had skyrocketed 118% vs. the three months prior. Similarly, these items experienced a 140% increase in online sell outs since the start of 2022, spiking after the US Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v Wade. A return to a Trump administration in the US could see a revival of demand for micro mini lengths and 2016-era trends in 2025. However, brands should now have the foresight to recognize that a T-shirt made by underpaid workers bearing “The Future Is Female” slogans isn't the best way to reference the zeitgeist.
We are also now more than ever aware of pop culture's impact on trends, which has been further reinforced by the influence of Charli XCX's BRAT album, spiraling across music and fashion to politics: “EDITED first reported the emergence of highlighter green in September 2022, after it was spotted on a host of celebrities and within Spring 2023 collections. Although overall arrivals of lime apparel hues are down for Spring 2024 vs. 2023, newness jumped up by 49% YoY in May, followed by a 171% spike in sell-outs in June, when the BRAT album dropped, compared to the same month last year.” (The BRAT Starter Pack by EDITED)
While the internet latches on to spontaneous soundbites that become instant sensations and, therefore, impossible to predict (“Very Demure, Very Mindful”), forecasters will have earmarked upcoming film, TV, and movie releases, art exhibitions, emerging designers and brand collaborations that have the potential to make their mark on the products we buy.
Trend forecasting today needs to cut through the bullshit to find clarity, combining these signals with political, economic, climatic and social factors, closely monitoring tastemakers, runway collections, and the currents of youth culture. Additionally, it is counterintuitive only to pinpoint references from the 1% culture overrun by celebrities and influencers, again indicating the trickle-down effect of the elite solely dictating fashion. Leveraging retail data, as demonstrated by EDITED, with consumer insights legitimizes the impact of these movements, helping demystify that chaotic landscape of trends and reduce the guesswork. “For we are truly living in a world where a bunch of top performers in any cultural discipline rake in an unprecedented share of profits. Call it the 1% culture […] The result is the terrible homogenization and blanding of culture, which inevitably leads to its impoverishment.” explains Eugene Rabkin in Welcome to the 1% Culture, Arguably.
This information is integral for brands to innovate, but they must also resist the urge to participate in every micro trend that emerges online. Doing so only further fuels the monoculture and the disconnect between a brand's identity and its consumers, who, amid this age of chronic connectivity, are also grappling with their own sense of self.
In Case of Doubt is a media for the age of great uncertainty directed by foresight researcher & strategist Elodie Marteau. Reach out to further explore how to make sense of this trendy trend business.
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